How to Thrive in this New Market

Calling it a “bad market” is the fastest way to talk yourself out of doing great work. We unpack why the current Australian real estate cycle is better understood as a new market, and how that single mindset shift changes your confidence, your conversations, and your ability to win listings and grow market share even when prices have softened.

We get practical on what separates thriving agents from everyone else: energetic yet calm presence, leadership with vendors, and the courage to talk price early and clearly. We dig into the 30 day comparables rule, why outdated sales evidence quietly kills campaigns, and how the best operators realign guides fast based on buyer feedback before a property slips into the stale zone. If you’ve got an owner clinging to last year’s expectations, you’ll hear a clean approach to resetting the conversation with facts and context, without drama.

We also zoom out to the realities driving buyer behaviour, from interest rates and cost of living pressure to seasonal shifts like spring stock. The through-line is simple: deals still happen when you do the job properly, tighten the gap between buyer and seller, and communicate like a pro. 

Transcript

Long Weekend Banter And New Energy

Tom Panos 0:00

Tom Panos, John McGrath, Troy Malcolm, million dollar agent being brought to you a day before the long weekends here in Australia. I know that the New Zealanders had their long weekend last weekend. How are you, gentlemen?

John McGrath 0:16

Very good. Hey Troy, very glad that the Rabidos have shown their true colours so that all the Rabid O'suppors can no longer hope that there's going to be something different. I was getting excited there for a bit. Remember where the Tigers and the Ravish were in the top four? Anyway.

Tom Panos 0:32

I know, I know. But listen, it goes to show a team gets a new coach, that's that new business energy, new coach energy, and man, we are flying high. And we look, we see that in real estate companies all the time, where a person comes in, they're different, they've got this sense of, oh, I'm pumped, excited. It's it's new business energy, and it's new coach energy, and they're they're winning. And congratulations to them. And I know, I know that our good friend Maddie Steinway's got a relationship with uh with Forin. I've actually seen uh Forin on Maddie's uh Maddie's

What Makes A Top Agent

Tom Panos 1:07

podcast. By the way, I've got to tell you, I was someone asked me on a on a uh I was walking and they asked me, mate, who do you think in the last 40 years has been an agent that is the best? Right? And I said, listen, I said, you know, obviously I'm biased. I said, Troy and John and I do the podcast. I think John's John's the benchmark, and he said to me, Oh, but John's not selling much these days. And he goes, What after John? I said, Maddie Steinwaite. I'll tell you why. I said, Maddie Steinwaite. I said, because this guy here has been able to go through trials and tribulations in his life. Many of those tribulations, many agents would have been wiped off. I mean, we all know the story. That Aric presentation that he did a few years ago would go down as being one of the greatest talks, not in real estate, it was just one of the most emotive talks. So I actually said Matty Steinwave, I think good guys come first. He's a good guy.

John McGrath 2:04

Turn we agree. Can't agree with that, Troy. Cannot get a better fella. Kieran is married to Matt's ex-wife. God knows what relationship that that makes. I'm not sure if there's a definition or term for that, but um it was a beautiful it was a beautiful podcast watching watching him interview.

Tom Panos 2:21

Basically, the guy that's married is his ex. I thought to myself, what's gonna come out of this conversation? And Matty doesn't even like footy. That's the incredible thing. He's not into rugby league on it.

John McGrath 2:31

I'll tell you the other thing. I think we may or may not have mentioned it recently, Tom, but uh, and I'm we're gonna get into in a minute, talking about how do you thrive in this new market. But um uh Billy Sournius, who's one of our agencies and George, has he's brought Trent Arby through as an associate, Sarah Fochel, now Sarah Warren, and now Jess Terry, and all three of them superstars. And I said to you, Jess Terry, I think will be the next um the next um Alex Jordan. And by the way, she's more than happy to speak to your gym members. I said you'd like to interview her. No relation. Just same certain.

Tom Panos 3:08

No relation, okay. Okay.

John McGrath 3:10

But um Matt Steinwaite, I mean, he you look at Geordie Boulmer, who's and and Trevor, who are his two sort of associate partners, they are two in isolation or or independently, they are two of the best agents in our entire company themselves. And I think again, testament to Matt and the depth that he that he has, that he's not only any a superb agent, but he's been able to mentor and bring through some incredible agents. So remember that everyone, it's

Mentoring And Building Star Teams

John McGrath 3:40

not just the success you have, it's almost as sorry, I was having trying everything, it's also the success you bring to your team and those you bring along with you. So, Troy, let's get into this new market, Tony.

Tom Panos 3:51

If you're happy, we're so I wanna I wanna I wanna I I think at the moment, and we spoke off there with Troy yesterday, there are two types of agents. We're getting a divide. There's one group of agents, the tried tested ones that have been around a while, they've seen markets like this before. They're wearing socks, by the way, these ones. Um, and um they basically said, bring it on. We think markets like this are a bit of a rinse because we you do get a group of real estate agents who join the industry when the market's hot and they leave when it's not. And the good veterans that are in markets that are good and bad, they quite like the fact that every so often there's a little bit of a rinse of these types of agents. So I'd love to talk about today, gentlemen, the divide. The ones that are saying, bring it on, we can cope with deal making, we can cope with negotiation, we can have that changeover conversation.

The Divide Between Agents Right Now

Tom Panos 4:51

Like Alec Phillips said it, Eric, he said, listen, 70% of my transactions sellers are selling for lower than what they actually paid for, but they're happy to move because the one that they're buying is actually giving them a much better benefit. They're upgrading, maybe buying two mil less, selling for a mil less, and they're transacting. So there's a group of agents that are saying, I can handle that change of a conversation, but there's also a group of agents that are saying, hey, I don't know how to explain to my owner that they're overpriced. I can't explain to my owner that things are really, really hard. So what are you let's talk about? What's the blueprint to win in this transition-changing buyer's market?

Thrive Mindset And Calm Confidence

John McGrath 5:31

Uh, Troy, if you want, I'll kick off with a few of my ideas because I actually presented to our own team this week some of these things. And these are things. So I I've called it how to thrive in the new market. And those two words, thrive and new, are important because it's not about surviving. If your actual mental state, Tom, is I hope I survive, well, you may not, you actually may not survive. If your state is how do I utilize this market to grow my market share and to double my business, irrespective of the market conditions, you're in the right heat place. So, and the other thing, it's again, it's not a bad market. I didn't say how do you survive in a bad market? I said how do you thrive in a new market? Because the agents who are prepared and capable and proactively having those conversations with their vendors are getting properties sold. I think I can't remember who was true. I was talking to one of our principals, and they said they had eight auctions over the weekend, they've played seven. Might have been one of our auctioneers. Um, so there are plenty of sales happening, but the problem, Tommy, is this this whole media, Middle East, uh, interest rates, cost of living, uh, inflation, budget debate, all this sort of stuff is giving agents so many excuses to fall back on. So all you've got to say is, how's the market? Oh, the market's really crap. But you know, every agent I'm speaking to, the market's crap. And I say to people, go and find some other agents to speak to, because you don't want to be speaking hazelons, you're only speaking to those that are growing their business. So here's a couple of things. Number one, Tori, shift your paradigm. It's not a bad market, it's the market. Prices are down maybe 10%, not everywhere, by the way, but a lot of places, maybe even 15%. But it's the new market. If you're having the conversations, you are going to get the property sold. And I and I then I mentioned there on point one, the inner market is what matters. It's actually what's happening between your ears. Don't worry about Albanese and Chalmers. Don't worry about Michelle, the the head of the reserve bank. Don't worry about the guy across the road that's doing deals at half a percent. Worry about your skills, your dialogue, what are you doing, how are you feeling? As Matt Steinemate gave a great presentation to our weekly webinar and in-house on on this week, and he just said, you know, your number one job as an agent is to feel good. If you feel good, you're gonna have others feel good, and you're gonna be able to um transfer your positive vibrations and emotions into the transaction. So that's number one. So, Troy, the second thing is the you that turns up is gonna have a massive impact on how the client feels and the listing and the buyer and the open for inspection and everything. So you have to arrive with what I would call an energetic yet calm and confident energy. And some people, when I've said it before, they say, Oh, how can you be energetic and calm? Well, the answer is you can. You know, you can be enthusiastic, but you can still have a tonality of a trusted advisor. So I think this is really critical, Troy, and the next one, and then I'll hand over to you.

Price Talks Using Recent Comparables

John McGrath 8:33

You just have to have better conversations up front about price. There was a time in the market not so long ago in most markets where you could almost get away without talking too much about price, and you never should have, but many agents did, because that was order taking time and it's no longer order taking time. So I think now you just have to spend the time and you have to use very recent comparables that are literally recent in the last 30 days in most markets. Anything beyond that is probably no longer comparable.

Troy Malcolm 9:04

You're 100% right. And I think one of the main things that you, John and Tom, we've always seen is the agents in this cycle of the market that have the most intelligence, they're really, really upskilled on product knowledge and they understand the critical 30 days of the previous sales that have impacting what the value of their homes are that they're representing, is making all the difference. Um, you know, we've got really successful agents throughout Australia right now repricing property on a weekly basis to make sure that they're having really, really crucial conversations and courageous conversations with their owners. And Tom, we were talking about this yesterday and noticing that the most successful, they're not set on a price and forget it. They're actually working even harder with those buyers and sellers to make sure that there's an adjustment where needed, but they're also making sure that people understand where the value proposition is of each one of the properties are they're representing.

Tom Panos 10:02

Yeah. So, Troy, well said. And in fact, I'm in Melbourne and I was just finishing a session uh with uh Kay and Burton here in um in Turak, well, their company, and one of the agents said to me, Tom, what do you do? I've had this vendor on the market for many, many months and not listening. I said, Listen, when did you first appraise that property? And he said to me, it was like March last year. I said, You went and appraised it in March last year. So think about it. Maybe right now they need another new listing presentation. Maybe you need to ring them up and say, Listen, I first came to see you in March. You put your property on the market in November. Listen, the world's changed, right? We've got rates, we've got Trump, we got budget. I want to give you a new appraisal based on comparables in the last three weeks, because this is what buyers are looking at. I think, I think that's what agents are doing. I think really good agents, Troy and John, they're focused on the changeover conversation. And we must not forget, you know, like there's a group of agents that feel like they've got to protect price. The market's the market. The market's got a brain of its own. The market during 2021 and 22 and 23 went crazy. In some markets, it went up 50, 60%. Yes, so it's come down 10, 15%. You've got to have the context of the backdrop of what's really happening. So I think good agents have got that calm voice and they're navigating clients through this. And I have to also say, like, Troy, John, I don't know what you've got

Timing The Market Before Spring Stock

Tom Panos 11:39

a view. I've got a view that we are facing headwinds. And I think that those headwinds might be we've got another one or two rate rises. We're going to have a bit of a surge in stock in spring. That's seasonal. So it sort of makes sense if you're a good agent to start telling your clients, hey, listen, if you're going to transact, maybe June, July, August is a better time to transact than September, October, November. And if you're really, really smart and lucky, you might end up selling at an okay figure, July, July, June, June, July, August, and you might be able to come back into the market and buy a really good property when there's a lot more stock on the market. So, you know, as you both have said, I last Saturday I did 11 auctions and seven sold. Now, there have been times in real estate when there've been none sold, there've been no people going to open. So I think you also got to keep a proper perspective. No, it's not like before, but you need one buyer, you need one vendor, and you need one good real estate agent that puts a deal together. Yes, seven buyers gone on one property, and the market putting the deal has gone, but that's our job. Our job has always been to narrow the gap between a buyer and a seller to bring them together.

Back To Basics Buyer Work And Truth

Troy Malcolm 12:50

So um, yeah, I think as well, Tom and John, it goes back to buyer work, right? How close are you with your buyer, then how much you're really assisting them in this process. Because, like vendors, they want to understand the market shifted. What is the appropriate level to be paying for a property? So I think you know, you get to those core values of both buyers and sellers and help educate them about what the market conditions are and what the real prices are, then you can have some really great, robust conversations and like I said, those courageous conversations to get a premium result. There's still going to be a number of transactions. I'd much rather, Tom, be on the market now in isolation than in competition in spring.

Tom Panos 13:33

I agree wholeheartedly, and I think right now, the best of the best, the top 1%, Australia and New Zealand, are basically saying, I'm going back to basics. I'm going back to basics and I'm going to make sure that my pricing is right. I'm going back to basics, I'm going to over-communicate like I'm CNN TV. I'm going to let my marketplace know what's going on. They're going back to basics and they're making sure that they realign guides based on the feedback. If the feedback's good, you might actually be looking at lifting the guide. If the feedback's not good, I think you've got to reset expectations early. This thing about resetting expectations in six, seven weeks gets vendors into the style zone. You don't want to be doing that. And I think the last thing is you've got to reset your own mindset expectations because I also accept that life is a little bit harder. It means that you're probably working longer. It means that you're probably doing those extra calls. It means that you probably speak to your vendor every day. It probably means that you're spending Fridays on the phone nudging buyers to come to your opens because you know that REA and domain can only do a certain amount. So you're getting back into great buyer work. And Troy, all I've got to also say is the best real estate agents have got this incredible ability to tell the truth in an efficient way, even when it's not good. They actually tell owners. I'll say to them, I might hurt you with the truth, but I'm not prepared to comfort you with a lie. This is what you need to hear, this is what you'd like to hear. I'm not saying that you should sell at this level. All I'm doing is giving you all the facts so you can make a good decision, right, in the selling and buying process. And I think we've all got to keep proper context. And by the way, what John said at the start is there are pockets around Australia, Darwin, lower price points under a million in a lot of parts of Australia. They're saying we just want more stock. So we can't universally turn around and say we've got a bad real estate market.

Troy Malcolm 15:28

That's exactly right.

ARIC Praise And Sign Off

John McGrath 15:30

So good tips there, guys. Hopefully you can take that into the market this afternoon. Um, Tommy travels safely, and I think the next session we should do, let's do a decent debrief on ARIC because most people are saying it was the best one I've ever attended, which we are delighted with, and that's always our intention.

Tom Panos 15:48

And I John John, I I said it to you privately. I've done Aric with you now for 23 years. As far as I'm concerned, you were the mount of the match. Some of those interviews that you son of some of those interviews that you did, John, mate, you you you could be on 60 minutes, right? You could be on 60 minutes, right? You were absolutely extraordinary. Um, and because some of those interviews were were difficult. You had to extract things out of them. It was just fantastic.

John McGrath 16:16

I mean, let's say one of the subjects was the challenge, but uh uh anyway, no, thank you. And and uh it was interesting because we always try and bring as many to the venue up live and personal whenever we can. But interesting that a couple of the people they mentioned that Alison Woodbrooks, Jesse Itzler, uh, and and Eve Warris Becker was sort of highlights of them. So, you know, there's always got to be a mix. Um travel safely, Tommy. Troy, have a good long weekend, everyone. We'll talk to you shortly.

Troy Malcolm 16:44

See everyone, see you soon.